Forecasting Agricultural Production Using ARIMAX model

Abstract

Maize (Zea mays), commonly known as corn, is one of the world's most important cereal crops, playing a vital role in global food security, livestock feed, and industrial applications. As a highly adaptable crop, maize is cultivated across diverse climatic conditions, from temperate to tropical regions. This study investigates the impact of rainfall on agricultural production and forecast the agricultural production using ARIMAX (p,d,q) time series model, by considering rainfall as the exogenous variable. Further, ARIMA (p,d,q) time series model is also identified for the same and a comparative study has been carried out.